Analyzing the internal, transient fluctuations of human decision-making. 3 mins read.
Unlike level noise, which measures the differences in baseline severity between different people, occasion noise measures how much a single person’s judgment varies from moment to moment. It is the most volatile form of noise because it is driven by the immediate physical and psychological state of the observer. A doctor might diagnose a patient with a severe illness on a rainy Friday afternoon, but recommend a conservative treatment plan for the exact same clinical profile on a sunny Tuesday morning.
Occasion noise exposes the myth of the rational, stable human expert. It shows that our decisions are deeply anchored to our immediate environment. Because human beings are biological entities, their cognitive performance is constantly modified by factors like blood sugar levels, stress, and circadian rhythms. This makes our individual judgments highly unpredictable over time, even when we believe we are acting with absolute objectivity.
Primary Source
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, Chapter 6 (2021).
If you found this valuable, consider supporting our work.
Join PhiloCrux community.
Unlock high-density masterclasses and investigations into ideas surviving outside the algorithmic consensus. Support independent thought and get full access to our digital library.
Join Now